Global| Dec 20 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance applications increased to 214,000 (-12.4% y/y) during the week ended December 15 from an unrevised 206,000 during the prior week. Initial claims remained near the lowest level since 1969. The Action [...]
Initial unemployment insurance applications increased to 214,000 (-12.4% y/y) during the week ended December 15 from an unrevised 206,000 during the prior week. Initial claims remained near the lowest level since 1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims eased to 222,000.
The latest claims figure covers the survey period for December nonfarm payrolls, and there was a 4.9% decline from the November period. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.688 million (-13.4% y/y) in the week ending December 8 from 1.661 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose to 1.673 million.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%, near the record low. The insured unemployment figures date back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending December 1, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.40%), North Carolina (0.43%), Nebraska (0.44%), Indiana (0.49%) and Florida (0.44%). The highest rates were in Illinois (1.53%), Connecticut (1.78%), California (1.92%), New Jersey (2.06%) and Alaska (3.10%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.96% in Ohio, 0.93% in Texas, 1.41% in New York, 0.57% in Georgia and 0.52% in Virginia. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/15/18 | 12/08/18 | 12/01/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 214 | 206 | 233 | -12.4 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,688 | 1,661 | -13.4 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.3 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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