Global| Sep 13 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 204,000 (-23.6% y/y) during the week ended September 8 from 205,000 in the prior week, revised from 203,000. It remained the lowest level since December 1969. The Action [...]
Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 204,000 (-23.6% y/y) during the week ended September 8 from 205,000 in the prior week, revised from 203,000. It remained the lowest level since December 1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a rise to 210,000 applications. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 208,000. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the month-on-month change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending September 1, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.696 million (-12.1% y/y from a little-changed 1.711 million a week earlier. It was the lowest level since November 1973. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.711 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended September 1, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.20%), Nebraska (0.33%), North Dakota (0.41%), Indiana (0.44%) and North Carolina (0.45%). The highest rates were in Rhode Island (1.86%), Pennsylvania (1.95%), Connecticut (2.20%) and New Jersey (2.45%). Among the largest states by population, the rate was 1.82% in California, 1.53% in New York, 1.00% in Texas and 0.52% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 09/08/18 | 09/01/18 | 08/25/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 204 | 205 | 213 | -23.6 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,696 | 1,711 | -12.1 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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