Global| Aug 02 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims inched higher to 218,000 during the week ended July 28 from an unrevised 217,000 during the prior week. Claims remained near the lowest level since late-1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims inched higher to 218,000 during the week ended July 28 from an unrevised 217,000 during the prior week. Claims remained near the lowest level since late-1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for 218,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims eased to 214,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending July 21, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.724 million from 1.747 million a week earlier, revised from 1.745 million. The four-week moving average of claimants was 1.742 million versus 1.746 million in the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early-May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended July 13, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.27%), Nebraska (0.46%), Indiana (0.47%), North Carolina (0.49%) and Florida (0.57%). The highest rates were in New Jersey (2.51%), Connecticut (2.28%), Pennsylvania (2.13%), Alaska (2.02%) and Rhode Island (2.00%). Amongst other large states the rate was 1.91% in California, 1.63% in Illinois, 1.52% in New York, 1.30% in Washington and 1.09% in Texas. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 07/28/18 | 07/21/18 | 07/14/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 218 | 217 | 208 | -10.3 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,724 | 1,747 | -12.2 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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