Global| Dec 22 2016U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance strengthened to 275,000 (2.2% y/y) in the week ended December 17 following an unrevised slip to 254,000 in the prior week. It was the highest level of claims since June. Expectations had been [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance strengthened to 275,000 (2.2% y/y) in the week ended December 17 following an unrevised slip to 254,000 in the prior week. It was the highest level of claims since June. Expectations had been for 257,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of claims rose to 263,750.
The latest claims figure covers the survey period for December nonfarm payroll employment. There has been a 42,000 (18.0%) rise versus the November survey week. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 2.036 million (-7.2% y/y) from 2.021 million. The four-week moving average of claimants was little changed at 2.037 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held near the record low at 1.5%.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary. For the week ended December 3, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.51%), Nebraska (0.57%), North Carolina (0.59%), South Dakota (0.62%), Georgia (0.75%) and Indiana (0.77%). The highest rates were found in Illinois (1.85%), Massachusetts (1.88%), Connecticut (2.20%), Pennsylvania (2.28%), New Jersey (2.43%) and Alaska (4.04%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/17/16 | 12/10/16 | 12/03/16 | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 275 | 254 | 258 | 2.2 | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,036 | 2,021 | -7.2 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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