Global| Dec 21 2017U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 245,000 (-8.9% y/y) in the week ended December 16 from an unrevised 225,000 in the prior week. It was the highest level of claims in five weeks. Expectations had been for 232,000 claims in [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 245,000 (-8.9% y/y) in the week ended December 16 from an unrevised 225,000 in the prior week. It was the highest level of claims in five weeks. Expectations had been for 232,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average rose to 236,000.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for December nonfarm payrolls. There was a 5,000 increase (2.1%) from the November survey period. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.932 million (-6.5% y/y) in the week ended December 9 from 1.889 million in the week prior. The four-week moving average of claimants rose slightly to 1.923 million, but remained near the lowest level since January 1974.
The insured unemployment rate rose slightly to 1.4% but remained near the record low.
Insured rates of unemployment varied across the country. For the week ended December 2, near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.48%), Nebraska (0.50%), Indiana (0.52%), Virginia (0.66%), Georgia (0.66%) and Colorado (0.84%). At the high end were New York (1.53%), Illinois (1.74%), Massachusetts (1.81%), Pennsylvania (2.10%), California (2.02%) and New Jersey (2.28%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/16/17 | 12/09/17 | 12/02/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 245 | 225 | 236 | -8.9 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | 1,932 | 1,889 | -6.5 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 | |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | 1.4 | 1.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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