Global| Jan 19 2012U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Fall To Lowest Since 2008
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Improvement in the labor market appears back on track. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 352,000 last week from 402,000 the week earlier (revised from 399,000). The latest figure was the lowest reading since April, [...]
Improvement in the labor market appears back on track. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 352,000 last week from 402,000 the week earlier (revised from 399,000). The latest figure was the lowest reading since April, 2008. Expectations had been for 385,000 claims in the Action Economics survey. The 4-week moving average slipped to 379,000.
The latest claims number covers the survey week for January payroll employment. There was a 14,000 decline (-3.8%) from the December period. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 215,000 to 3.432M in the first week of the year. The insured unemployment rate fell to 2.7%, the lowest since September, 2008. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the December 31st week, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients rose to 7.827 mil. (-18.9% y/y).
By state, the insured unemployment rate varied as of December 31st with Virginia (1.7%), Texas (1.9%), Florida (1.9%), Arizona (2.3%), Tennessee (2.6%), Ohio (2.8%) and Indiana (2.8%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in New York (3.8%), North Carolina (3.8%), California (3.8%), Michigan (3.9%), New Jersey (4.3%), Pennsylvania (4.7%) and Connecticut (6.6%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.
| Unemployment Insurance(000s) | 01/14/12 | 01/07/12 | 12/31/11 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 352 | 402 | 375 | -15.2 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,432 | 3,647 | -13.1 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.2 (1/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 7.827M | -18.9 | 2.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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