Global| Feb 11 2016U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline to Seven-Week Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims retreated to 269,000 during the week ended February 6 from an unrevised 285,000 in the prior week. The four-week moving average declined to 281,250, yet has been working higher since October. [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims retreated to 269,000 during the week ended February 6 from an unrevised 285,000 in the prior week. The four-week moving average declined to 281,250, yet has been working higher since October. Consensus expectations were for 279,000 applications in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending January 30, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 2.239 million (-4.6% y/y). The four-week moving average eased to 2.248 million, but remained near the highest level since early-September.
The insured rate of unemployment eased to 1.6%, about where it's been since last March.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were Florida (0.67%), North Carolina (0.82%), Virginia (0.95%), Georgia (0.99%), Arizona (1.09%) and Tennessee (1.10%). At the high end of the scale were Massachusetts (2.86%), Illinois (2.90%), Connecticut (3.07%), Pennsylvania (3.10%), New Jersey (3.30%) and West Virginia (3.63%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted and cover the week ended January 16.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/06/16 | 01/30/16 | 01/23/16 | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 269 | 285 | 277 | -10.3 | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,239 | 2,260 | -4.6 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.7 |
1.8 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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