Global| Jul 13 2017U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 247,000 during the week ended July 8 from 250,000, revised from 248,000, in the prior week. Expectations called for 245,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 247,000 during the week ended July 8 from 250,000, revised from 248,000, in the prior week. Expectations called for 245,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average rose slightly to 245,750, the highest level since early-April. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 1.945 million (-9.8% y/y) in the week ended July 1 and reversed the prior week's increase. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 1.949 million, the highest level since late-April.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the record low of 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment continue to vary widely across the country. For the week ended June 24, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.31%), Indiana (0.51%), Nebraska (0.52%), North Carolina (0.55%), Florida (0.64%) and Tennessee (0.82%). The highest rates were found in Alaska (2.38%), New Jersey (2.30%), Connecticut (2.30%), California (2.13%), Massachusetts (1.79%) and Illinois (1.77%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
The unemployment insurance claims data begin January 2, 1971. Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 07/08/17 | 7/01/17 | 06/24/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 247 | 250 | 244 | -5.0 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,945 | 1,965 | -9.8 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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