Global| Sep 05 2013U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Continue Downward
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Improvement in the labor market is coming from all quarters. Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 323,000 (-12.2% y/y) during the week of August 31 from 332,000 in the week prior, initially reported as 331,000. The latest [...]
Improvement in the labor market is coming from all quarters. Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 323,000 (-12.2% y/y) during the week of August 31 from 332,000 in the week prior, initially reported as 331,000. The latest figure fell short of an expected 330,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 328,500, a new low for the economic recovery.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended August 24 declined to 2.951 million (-11.0% y/y) from 2.994 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell to 2.980 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.3%. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of August 17, the latest figure available, the total of all benefit recipients rose slightly to 4.396 million (-19.6% y/y). This broader measure is not seasonally adjusted. It compares to a cycle peak of 12.060 million in January 2010. The number of individuals who were collecting emergency and extended payments slipped to 1.495 million (-34.0% y/y).
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Nebraska (0.96%), Virginia (1.21%), Indiana (1.46%), Ohio (1.50%), Tennessee (1.51%), Georgia (1.58%), Texas (1.59%) and Florida (1.63%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Michigan (1.86%), Massachusetts (2.42%), Illinois (2.67%), New York (2.73%), California (3.12%), Pennsylvania (3.22%) and New Jersey (3.56%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/31/13 | 08/24/13 | 08/17/13 | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 323 | 332 | 337 | -12.2 | 375 | 409 | 459 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,951 | 2,994 | -11.0 | 3,318 | 3,744 | 4,544 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 (8/12) |
2.6 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 4.396 mil. | -19.6 | 6.047 mil. | 7.750 mil. | 9.850 mil. |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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