Global| May 01 2008U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Back Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance claims reversed the prior period's decline and rose 35,000 last week to 380,000. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total 360,000 last week. The four week moving average of initial [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance claims reversed the prior period's decline and rose 35,000 last week to 380,000. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total 360,000 last week.
The four week moving average of initial claims, however, fell to 363,750 (13.1% y/y), its lowest level in over a month.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 74,000 and also reversed the prior week's decline. The latest level was its highest since early 2004 and it provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.3% after four weeks at 2.2%. The latest also was the highest since 2004.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/25/08 | 04/18/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 380 | 345 | 23.0% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,019 | 20.9% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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