Global| Apr 21 2016U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Unexpectedly Decline Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 247,000 during the week ended April 16 from an unrevised 253,000 in the prior week. For the past year, claims have been near the lowest level since 1973. Expectations were for 264,000 [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 247,000 during the week ended April 16 from an unrevised 253,000 in the prior week. For the past year, claims have been near the lowest level since 1973. Expectations were for 264,000 applications in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of claims declined to 260,500.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey period for April nonfarm payrolls, and claims declined 12,000 (-4.6%) versus March. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending April 9, continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2.137 million (-7.4% y/y) from 2.176 million. The four-week moving average fell to 2.169 million, a new low for the economic expansion.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, the low point of the economic recovery.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were Florida (0.58%), South Dakota (0.59%), North Carolina (0.63%), South Carolina (0.79%), Tennessee (0.85%) and Virginia (0.88%). At the high end of the scale were Massachusetts (2.38%), Illinois (2.42%), Connecticut (2.50%), Pennsylvania (2.60%), New Jersey (2.94%) and Alaska (4.06%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/16/16 | 04/09/16 | 04/02/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 247 | 253 | 266 | -13.5% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,137 | 2,176 | -7.4 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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