Global| Aug 08 2013U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Tick Higher W/W; Remain Near Lowest Since 2007
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly to 333,000 (-9.5% y/y) during the week ended August 3 from 328,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 326,000. The latest figures remained the lowest since early-November [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly to 333,000 (-9.5% y/y) during the week ended August 3 from 328,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 326,000. The latest figures remained the lowest since early-November 2007. Last week's number compared to an expected 335,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four week moving average of claims fell to a new low of 335,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended July 27 increased to 3.018 million (-9.2% y/y) from 2.951 million. The four week moving average of continuing claims slipped to 3.024 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.3%. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of July 20, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients slipped to a recovery low 4.521 million, (-21.4% y/y). That compares to a cycle peak of 12.060 million in January 2010. The number of individuals who were collecting emergency and extended payments dropped to another cycle low of 1.516 million (-37.2% y/y).
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with North Dakota (0.65%), Virginia (1.25%), Indiana (1.53%), Ohio (1.61%), Texas (1.66%), Colorado (1.69%), Maine (1.71%) and Vermont (1.75%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Hawaii (2.02%), Michigan (2.21%), Illinois (2.75%), New York (2.77%), California (3.00%), Pennsylvania (3.33%), Alaska (3.52%) and New Jersey (3.66%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/03/13 | 07/27/13 | 07/20/13 | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 333 | 328 | 345 | -9.5 | 375 | 409 | 459 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,018 | 2,951 | -9.2 | 3,318 | 3,744 | 4,544 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 (7/12) |
2.6 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 4.521 mil. | -21.4 | 6.047 mil. | 7.750 mil. | 9.850 mil. |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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