Global| Apr 24 2008U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Lowest Since February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Unexpectedly, initial unemployment insurance claims fell 33,000 last week to 342,000. The decline followed a little revised 20,000 increase during the prior week and it dropped claims to the lowest level in two months. Consensus [...]
Unexpectedly, initial unemployment insurance claims fell 33,000 last week to 342,000. The decline followed a little revised 20,000 increase during the prior week and it dropped claims to the lowest level in two months. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total 375,000 last week.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 369,500 (14.0% y/y), its lowest level in a month.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 65,000 after an upwardly revised 46,000 increase during the prior week. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.2% for the fifth week in the last six.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/19/08 | 04/12/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 342 | 375 | 8.2% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,934 | 14.8% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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