Global| Nov 21 2007U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Back
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell back 11,000 last week to 330,000 after a 22,000 jump during the week prior. That was a slightly greater increase than originally indicated. A claims level of 330,000 had been expected for [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell back 11,000 last week to 330,000 after a 22,000 jump during the week prior. That was a slightly greater increase than originally indicated. A claims level of 330,000 had been expected for the latest week. There were no special factors indicated as having influenced the figures.
The latest figure is for the survey week for November nonfarm payrolls and claims fell 9,000 (2.7%) from the October period.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four week moving average of initial claims dipped slightly to 329,750 (3.2% y/y).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 10 were in Michigan (+6,895), California (+5,696), Puerto Rico (+3,745), New Jersey (+2,726), and New York (+2,394), while the largest decreases were in Iowa (-2,397), Ohio (-1,558), North Carolina (-870), South Carolina (-809), and Georgia (-482).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 7,000 after a 16,000 worker decline that was slightly deeper than initially reported.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment was again stable at 1.9%.
Labor Force Participation and the Prospects for U.S. Growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/17/07 | 11/10/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 330 | 341 | 2.5% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,566 | 5.7% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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