Global| Dec 17 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 271,000 (-4.6% y/y) in the week ending December 12 from an unrevised 282,000 in the previous week. The decline reversed most of the prior month's increase. Action Economics [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 271,000 (-4.6% y/y) in the week ending December 12 from an unrevised 282,000 in the previous week. The decline reversed most of the prior month's increase. Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 273,000 filings. The four-week moving average held steady at 270,000 and remained near the 15-year low. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The latest claims figure covers the survey week for December employment and initial claims were stable with the November period. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending December 5, continuing claims for unemployment insurance edged lower to 2.238 million, though claims in the last two weeks were raised from the November lows. The four-week moving average also edged higher to 2.200 million, but remained near the 15-year low.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7%, remaining near the cycle low.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. The lowest were South Dakota (0.5%), Nebraska (0.7%), Florida (0.8%), Indiana (0.8%), Virginia (0.8%) and Tennessee (0.9%). At the other end of the spectrum were Massachusetts (2.1%), Illinois (2.2%), Connecticut (2.3%), Pennsylvania (2.4%), California (2.7%) and New Jersey (2.7%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted and reported with a two-week lag versus the headline figure.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/12/15 | 12/05/15 | 11/28/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 271 | 282 | 269 | -4.6 | 307 | 342 | 372 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,238 | 2,245 | -6.5 | 2,607 | 2,978 | 3,308 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 |
1.8 |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
