Global| Jan 17 2018U.S. Industrial Production Strengthens with Cold Weather; Factory Output Edges Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve indicated that industrial production increased 0.9% (3.6% y/y) during December following a 0.1% dip in November, revised from +0.2%. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last [...]
The Federal Reserve indicated that industrial production increased 0.9% (3.6% y/y) during December following a 0.1% dip in November, revised from +0.2%. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month's increase reflected a 5.6% jump in utility output which was boosted by cold temperatures. Factory sector production gained 0.1% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Mining output surged 1.6% (11.5% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The rise in factory sector output reflected a 1.0% increase (1.5% y/y) in consumer goods production, bolstered by a 2.0% strengthening (0.4% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts output. Apparel production gained 0.4% (-8.7% y/y) and paper output rose 0.3% (-1.1% y/y). To the downside, electrical equipment & appliance output fell 0.7% (+3.1% y/y). Business equipment production improved 0.2% (4.2% y/y). Machinery production increased 0.5% (8.3% y/y) but computer & electronic component production eased 0.1% (+2.4% y/y). Chemical production fell 0.7% (+3.2% y/y) and petroleum & related product output was off 0.7% (+2.0% y/y).
Production of materials jumped 1.1% (5.2% y/y) as energy materials production surged 2.7% (8.0% y/y). Durable goods materials improved 0.1% (3.5% y/y) and nondurable goods materials also rose 0.1% (3.0% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production in selected high-technology industries rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Nonenergy production excluding high-tech gained 0.2% (2.4% y/y). Factory sector production excluding both high-tech and autos was unchanged (2.5% y/y).
Capacity utilization increased to 77.9%, the highest level since February 2015. Factory sector capacity utilization held steady m/m at 76.4%. Electric & gas utility utilization surged to 80.4%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.1 |
| Consumer Goods | 1.0 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| Business Equipment | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 2.6 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Materials | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | -2.3 | -1.4 |
| Utilities | 5.6 | -3.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| Mining | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 11.5 | 6.6 | -9.1 | -4.3 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.9 | 77.2 | 77.4 | 76.0 | 76.5 | 75.7 | 76.8 |
| Manufacturing | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.3 | 75.2 | 75.7 | 75.1 | 75.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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