Global| Oct 16 2014U.S. Industrial Production Strength is Driven by Utilities
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production jumped 1.0% during September (4.4% y/y) following a 0.2% August dip revised from -0.1%. The gain was driven by a 3.9% spike (0.9% y/y) in utility output which followed a 1.2% rise. Factory production rose 0.5% [...]
Industrial production jumped 1.0% during September (4.4% y/y) following a 0.2% August dip revised from -0.1%. The gain was driven by a 3.9% spike (0.9% y/y) in utility output which followed a 1.2% rise. Factory production rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y) and recovered its 0.5% August drop, last month reported as -0.4%. A 0.4% gain in total production was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Production of furniture led last month's increase with a 2.4% rise (9.6% y/y) and apparel output gained 1.5% (-1.5% y/y). Chemical production improved 0.8% (3.6% y/y) while computer & electronics production rose 0.7% (4.4% y/y). Electrical equipment production ticked up just 0.1% (4.5% y/y). Offsetting these gains was a 1.4% drop (+5.7% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts production, machinery output fell 0.2% (+5.5% y/y) while petroleum output slipped 0.1% (+2.1% y/y).
Within the special aggregate series, high technology industries posted a 0.8% production gain (6.1% y/y). That was driven by a 1.1% rise (8.3% y/y) in semiconductors. Factory production excluding the high-tech sector rose 0.4% (3.5% y/y). Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos gained 0.6% (3.5% y/y) after being unchanged in August.
The capacity utilization rate recovered to 79.3%, its highest level of the economic expansion, but it remained below the 80.5% high averaged in 2007. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate edged up to 77.3% but remained below the July high of 77.6%. Total industry capacity rose an improving 3.0% y/y while factory sector capacity increased 2.1%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy from Stanley Fischer, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve is available here.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 1.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Manufacturing | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| Consumer Goods | 0.5 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Business Equipment | 0.3 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| Materials | 1.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Utilities | 3.9 | 1.2 | -3.0 | 0.9 | 2.1 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 79.3 | 78.7 | 79.1 | 77.8 | 78.0 | 77.3 | 76.3 |
| Manufacturing | 77.3 | 77.1 | 77.6 | 76.2 | 76.1 | 75.5 | 73.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
