Global| Dec 15 2011U.S. Industrial Production Slips
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production fell 0.2% during November following an unrevised 0.7% October gain. The latest decline matched Consensus expectations, according to Action Economics. Factory sector output fell 0.4% and reversed the October [...]
Industrial production fell 0.2% during November following an unrevised 0.7% October gain. The latest decline matched Consensus expectations, according to Action Economics. Factory sector output fell 0.4% and reversed the October increase. Utility output rose 0.2% and mostly reversed its October decline.
Output of business equipment slipped 0.1% following its 1.4% surge but remained up 10.0% during the last 12 months. This y/y gain reflects 25.3% growth in transit equipment, 6.5% in information processing & other, and 5.9% in industrial supplies & other. Consumer goods output fell 0.4% led by a 2.7% decline (+12.0% y/y) in autos. Computers, video & audio fell 2.0% (+0.9% y/y) and appliance, furniture & carpeting slipped 0.1% (-0.3% y/y). Nondurables output ticked 0.2% lower (+0.4% y/y), while clothing production fell 0.6% (-5.0% y/y). Less the high-tech & motor vehicle industries industrial production was unchanged last month (3.5% y/y) following no change during October.
Capacity utilization fell to 77.8%. In manufacturing alone, utilization slipped m/m to 75.3% but was still up from the recession low of 64.4%. Overall capacity is estimated to have risen 1.2% y/y following a 2.2% decline during 2010. In the factory sector, capacity rose 0.8% y/y. However, it was roughly unchanged less the high-tech industries.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The IP database contains figures with more decimal precision and includes extensive lists of "relative importance" numbers for several breakdowns of production by industry and market group. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | -11.2 | -3.7 |
| Manufacturing | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | -13.5 | -5.0 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 4.3 | -7.2 | -5.2 |
| Business Equipment | -0.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 10.0 | 7.7 | -16.3 | -2.5 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | -22.5 | -9.7 |
| Materials | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 4.0 | 6.3 | -11.6 | -2.7 |
| Utilities | 0.2 | -0.3 | -3.0 | -0.7 | 4.0 | -2.6 | -0.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.8 | 78.0 | 77.6 | 75.8 | 74.5 | 69.1 | 77.8 |
| Manufacturing | 75.3 | 75.6 | 75.3 | 73.1 | 71.7 | 66.2 | 74.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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