Global| Sep 15 2017U.S. Industrial Production Reduced by Hurricane Harvey
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve indicated that storm damage curtailed the change in total industrial production, as well as the change in factory sector activity, by roughly 3/4 percentage point during August. Industrial production declined 0.9% [...]
The Federal Reserve indicated that storm damage curtailed the change in total industrial production, as well as the change in factory sector activity, by roughly 3/4 percentage point during August. Industrial production declined 0.9% last month (+1.6% y/y) following a 0.4% July gain, revised from 0.2%. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory output fell 0.3% (+1.5% y/y) following no change in July, revised from -0.1%. Mining production eased 0.8% (+9.6% y/y) after a 1.5% increase.
The decline in factory sector production occurred as consumer products production fell 0.7% (-0.3% y/y). Nondurable goods output declined 1.1% (-0.1% y/y). Clothing output was off 2.5% (-8.6% y/y) after a 1.4% rise, while chemical products production rose 0.3% (1.7% y/y) following a 1.6% gain. Paper products production eased 0.2% (+0.6% y/y). Production of durable consumer products rose 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) as motor vehicle & parts production improved 2.2% (-3.5% y/y), up after three months of decline. Appliance and furniture output fell 0.9% (+0.6% y/y), down for the third month in four, but computer, video & audio product production rose 0.9% (1.3% y/y) following three months of decline. Business equipment production fell 0.4% (+1.9% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Transit equipment output gained 0.5% (-1.9% y/y) after a 2.1% drop as production of information processing equipment rose 0.4% (2.6% y/y) following a 0.3% easing. Construction supplies production fell 0.5% (+2.9% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Materials production dropped 1.1% (+2.4% y/y) reflecting a 2.0% fall in energy materials output (+3.1% y/y) that reversed July's increase. Nondurable consumer goods materials output dropped 2.0% (+1.8% y/y) but durable materials production rose 0.5% (1.8% y/y).
In the aggregate groupings, selected high-technology product production increased 1.4% (3.4% y/y), raised by a 1.9% rebound (11.1% y/y) in computer & peripherals production. Communication equipment production eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y). Factory production excluding both motor vehicles and high-tech products fell 0.6% (+1.8% y/y) after a 0.4% rise.
Capacity utilization declined to 76.1%, but was still up from 75.8% last August. Factory sector utilization declined m/m to 75.3% though it was up y/y from 74.7%. Factory sector capacity rose 0.7%, while excluding the high-tech sector, it gained 0.4% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 | -1.2 | -0.7 | 3.1 |
| Manufacturing | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Business Equipment | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 1.9 | -1.8 | -0.9 | 1.9 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 3.4 |
| Materials | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.4 | -2.3 | -1.4 | 5.1 |
| Utilities | -5.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | -7.8 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 1.4 |
| Mining | -0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.6 | -9.1 | -4.3 | 10.7 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 76.1 | 76.9 | 76.7 | 75.8 | 75.7 | 76.8 | 78.6 |
| Manufacturing | 75.3 | 75.6 | 75.6 | 74.7 | 75.1 | 75.5 | 75.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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