Global| Jul 15 2010U.S. Industrial Production Recovery Stutters
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The recovery in industrial output ground to a halt last month. Overall production ticked up just 0.1 after a little-revised 1.3 May increase. But all of the latest increase was due to hot temperatures and higher utility output. In the [...]
The recovery in industrial output ground to a halt last month.
Overall
production ticked up just 0.1 after a little-revised 1.3 May increase.
But all
of the latest increase was due to hot temperatures and higher utility
output. In
the factory sector, output fell 0.4% for the second decline this year.
Nevertheless, output is up 8.3% since the end of the last
recession with
output of business equipment, usually a laggard, up 11.4%.
Amongst major industry groupings, it was output of business equipment that held up last month with a 0.9% rise. The 11.4% annual gain in equipment output also outpaced the gains in most other categories. In individual industries, output of machinery is up 16.5% y/y, computers & electronic products is up 16.3% and electrical equipment, appliances & components is up 5.8%. Overall consumer goods output has risen 6.8% y/y led by a 52.5% jump in motor vehicle output but in June it declined slightly. Less motor vehicles, consumer goods output fell 1.3% last month (+2.4% y/y). Working the other way, apparel output rose 1.4% last month (9.5% y/y).
Capacity utilization held stable at 74.1%, its highest level since November 2008. In the factory sector alone, utilization fell slightly to 71.4%, still near the highest level since October 2008 and up from the 2009 low of 65.4%.
The industrial production data are available in Haver's USECON database with more detail available in the IP database.
| Industrial Production (SA,%) | June | May | April | June Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 8.2 | -9.3 | -3.3 | 2.7 |
| Manufacturing | -0.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 8.3 | -11.1 | -4.5 | 2.9 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.5 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 6.8 | -5.8 | -4.20 | 0.9 |
| Business Equipment | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 11.4 | -12.2 | -1.5 | 4.5 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.3 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | -16.7 | -9.5 | -1.2 |
| Materials | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9.8 | -9.7 | -2.7 | 3.7 |
| Utilities | 2.8 | 5.5 | -4.3 | 7.2 | -2.6 | -0.1 | 3.4 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 74.1 | 74.1 | 73.1 | 68.2 (June '09) | 70.0 | 77.9 | 81.3 |
| Factory Utilization | 71.4 | 71.7 | 70.9 | 65.4 | 67.2 | 75.0 | 79.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
