Global| Apr 16 2014U.S. Industrial Production Records a Surprising Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial output in the U.S. increased 0.7% last month (3.7% y/y) following a 1.2% jump during February, initially reported as 0.6%. A 0.5% gain in total production was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Production in [...]
Industrial output in the U.S. increased 0.7% last month (3.7% y/y) following a 1.2% jump during February, initially reported as 0.6%. A 0.5% gain in total production was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Production in the factory sector rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y) after a revised 1.4% February spike, last month reported as 0.8%. Utility output strengthened 1.0% (8.2 y/y) with lingering cold temperatures.
Consumer goods output posted a 0.7% rise (3.2% y/y) after a 1.4% increase, revised from 0.8%. The gain was paced by a 3.4% rise (5.0% y/y) in apparel production, rebounding after two months of shortfall. Textile output also rose 2.5% (-1.1% y/y) following three months of decline. Furniture production gained 2.0% (3.4% y/y) after two months of sharp decline. Paper output also gained 1.1% (-2.9% y/y) after two months of lessened activity. Computer & electronic components production rose 0.9% (6.0% y/y), strong for the third straight month. Electrical equipment and appliance production increased 0.8% (3.1% y/y) and chemical output gained 0.3% (2.0% y/y). To the downside, motor vehicle & parts output declined 0.8% (+5.4% y/y) after a 6.9% February rebound. Primary metals production fell 1.5% (+1.5% y/y), reversing its February rise and food and beverage output fell 0.3% (+1.1 y/y) after a 1.8% jump.
Within the special aggregate series, high technology industries posted a 0.7% production gain (8.3% y/y), led by a 1.4% rise (7.2% y/y) in computer output. Factory production excluding the high tech area rose 0.5% (2.6% y/y). Manufacturing production excluding both high tech and autos rose 0.6% (2.4% y/y) on the heels of a 1.1% jump.
The capacity utilization rate rose to 79.2% last month from a downwardly revised 78.1%. That remained below the 80.5% high averaged in 2007. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate improved to 76.7% and remained below the 78.6% level before the recession. Total industry capacity rose a roughly stable 2.2% y/y while factory sector capacity increased 2.0%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.7 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Manufacturing | 0.5 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| Consumer Goods | 0.7 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Business Equipment | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| Materials | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Utilities | 1.0 | -0.3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 79.2 | 78.1 | 78.4 | 78.0 | 77.9 | 77.3 | 76.3 |
| Manufacturing | 76.7 | 76.5 | 75.5 | 76.1 | 76.1 | 75.5 | 73.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
