Global| May 17 2016U.S. Industrial Production Posts Strong Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial output increased 0.7% during April (-1.1% y/y) following declines in six of the prior seven months. It was the largest increase since November 2014. A 0.3% rise in output had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Industrial output increased 0.7% during April (-1.1% y/y) following declines in six of the prior seven months. It was the largest increase since November 2014. A 0.3% rise in output had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 5.8% increase in utility output (0.4% y/y) led last month's increase in total production. Natural gas output rebounded 9.3% (-0.5% y/y), while electric power generation jumped 5.4% (0.5% y/y). Mining sector production offset some of these increases, however, with a 2.3% fall (-13.4% y/y).
Factory sector production recovered 0.3% last month (0.4% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% drop. Consumer goods production jumped 1.2% (1.3% y/y) as motor vehicle output & parts output recovered 1.3% (4.3% y/y) after a 1.4% drop. Electrical equipment production declined 0.9% (-0.5% y/y), but machinery output jumped 2.4% (-3.8% y/y). Computer & electronic product production rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y).
In the nondurable goods sector, petroleum & coal production declined 3.4% (+2.2% y/y), and chemical output eased 0.3% (+1.0% y/y). Apparel output declined 2.3% (-8.3% y/y) while paper product production remained unchanged (-2.5% y/y).
In the subcategory groupings, output of high technology products edged 0.1% higher (2.4% y/y) as semiconductor production increased 1.3% (0.3% y/y). Computer & office equipment production fell 0.8% (-4.0% y/y). Communications equipment eased 0.6% (+11.4% y/y). Overall factory sector production excluding the high-tech & motor vehicle sectors recovered 0.2% after a 0.2% fall, and was unchanged y/y.
Capacity utilization increased to 75.4% last month from 74.9%, revised from 74.8%. That remained down from 78.9% in November 2014. Factory sector utilization improved to 75.3%, but was down from the 2014 high of 76.3%. Industry capacity rose 1.0% y/y while factory sector capacity improved 0.8% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.7 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Consumer Goods | 1.2 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Business Equipment | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -0.2 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Materials | 0.4 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -2.9 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Utilities | 5.8 | -3.3 | -1.0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Mining | -2.3 | -3.0 | -0.7 | -13.4 | -1.8 | 11.0 | 6.5 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 75.4 | 74.9 | 75.6 | 76.9 | 76.7 | 78.2 | 76.9 |
| Manufacturing | 75.3 | 75.1 | 75.4 | 75.6 | 75.5 | 75.4 | 74.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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