Global| Nov 16 2016U.S. Industrial Production Is Unchanged; Factory Output Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial output was steady during October (-0.9% y/y) following a 0.2% September decline, revised from a 0.1% increase. An August decline of 0.1% was revised from -0.5%. The unchanged October reading disappointed expectations for a [...]
Industrial output was steady during October (-0.9% y/y) following a 0.2% September decline, revised from a 0.1% increase. An August decline of 0.1% was revised from -0.5%. The unchanged October reading disappointed expectations for a 0.2% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Factory sector production increased 0.2% last month (-0.2% y/y), the same as in September. Consumer goods production fell 0.2% (+0.5% y/y) after a 0.1% easing. In the durable goods sector, computers and video & audio equipment production jumped 1.7% (-3.0% y/y) after two consecutive 2.3% declines. Furniture & appliance production rose 0.8% (0.5% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Motor vehicle & parts production gained 0.9% (5.0% y/y). In the nondurable goods area, clothing output declined 0.5% (-5.1% y/y), but chemical production rose 0.7% (-1.9% y/y). Paper output improved 0.7% (-1.9% y/y). In the capital goods sector, production increased 0.2% (-0.2% y/y) after two slight monthly declines. Transit equipment production fell 0.2% (-3.3% y/y), but information processing equipment increased 1.1% (6.4% y/y). Construction supplies production gained 0.6% (-0.5% y/y).
In the materials sector, a 0.2% output increase (-1.7% y/y) reflected a 0.7% rise (-0.8% y/y) in durables and a 0.3% decline (-0.5% y/y) in nondurables.
Utilities output fell 2.6% (-0.1% y/y) but mining output increased 2.1% (-7.0% y/y).
In the special industrial output groupings, computers, communications equipment & semiconductor output rose 1.0% (6.7% y/y). Computer & peripheral equipment output gained 3.3% (13.0% y/y) but communications equipment output fell 0.4% (+17.4% y/y). Overall factory sector production excluding both the high-tech and automotive sectors rose 0.1% (-0.6% y/y) following a 0.2% rise.
Capacity utilization eased to 75.3%. It has been moving sideways this year following a decline from the 2014 peak of 78.9%. Factory sector utilization also rose to 74.9%, but remained below the 2014 peak of 76.3%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Business Equipment | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -0.2 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.6 | 0.5 | -1.2 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Materials | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -1.7 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Utilities | -2.6 | -3.0 | 2.8 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Mining | 2.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -7.0 | -1.8 | 11.0 | 6.5 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 75.3 | 75.4 | 75.6 | 76.3 | 76.7 | 78.2 | 76.9 |
| Manufacturing | 74.9 | 74.8 | 74.7 | 75.6 | 75.5 | 75.4 | 74.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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