Global| Oct 16 2018U.S. Industrial Production Increases Moderately
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The factory sector remains in good shape. Industrial production rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.4% August increase. A 0.2% improvement had been expected in the Action Economics Survey. Manufacturing [...]
The factory sector remains in good shape. Industrial production rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.4% August increase. A 0.2% improvement had been expected in the Action Economics Survey. Manufacturing activity gained 0.2% (3.5% y/y) last month after a 0.3% August gain, revised from 0.2%. Continuing strong, mining output improved 0.5% (13.4% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Utilities output held steady (5.4% y/y) in September following a 1.1% surge.
The rise in manufacturing output was led by a 1.7% increase (7.1% y/y) in motor vehicles and parts output after a 4.3% jump in August. Machinery production increased 0.9% (5.2% y/y) following a 1.9% surge. Furniture & related product production gained 0.7% (1.8% y/y) and recouped the prior month's decline. Production of computers & electronic products rose 0.5% (6.7% y/y) following a 0.3% easing.
In the nondurable goods sector, production eased slightly overall as apparel production dropped 1.7% (-1.2% y/y), the fourth sharp decline in the last five months. Chemical production declined 0.4% (+7.8% y/y) after no change, but paper output rose 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) following a 1.2% drop. Petroleum & coal product output rose 0.9% (-0.4% y/y) following a 0.3% gain.
Business equipment production strengthened 0.8% (3.6% y/y) after a 1.0% increase. Transit equipment output jumped 2.2% (3.8% y/y) and doubled the prior month's gain. Industrial & other equipment production rose 0.5% (3.0% y/y) following a 1.0% rise. Information processing equipment production ticked just 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) following a 0.6% decline.
Finally, construction supplies output fell 0.6% (+2.4% y/y), the third decline in four months. Industrial supplies & materials production held steady (2.0% y/y) after a 0.1% dip.
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products gained 0.6% (6.9% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. A 1.5% surge (19.3% y/y) in semiconductor & electronic component production followed a 0.7% gain. Computer & peripheral production fell, however, by 2.2%, down sharply for the second straight month (+1.1% y/y). Factory sector production excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors improved 0.1% (3.1% y/y) and made up July's dip.
Capacity utilization held steady m/m at 78.1%, up from a 75.0% low touched in November 2016. Factory sector utilization inched up to 75.9%, but mining sector utilization held fairly steady at 92.1%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| Manufacturing | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| Consumer Goods | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Business Equipment | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.0 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.6 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Materials | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 2.0 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
| Utilities | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 5.4 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Mining | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 13.4 | 6.4 | -9.7 | -3.4 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.1 | 78.1 | 77.9 | 75.7 | 76.1 | 75.4 | 77.3 |
| Manufacturing | 75.9 | 75.8 | 75.7 | 74.2 | 74.8 | 74.6 | 75.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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