Global| Nov 17 2015U.S. Industrial Production Falls 0.2% for Second Straight Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall industrial output eased 0.2% during October (+0.4% y/y), repeating an unrevised September dip. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% fall. A 2.5% decline (-1.5% y/y) in utility output accounted for most of last [...]
Overall industrial output eased 0.2% during October (+0.4% y/y), repeating an unrevised September dip. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% fall. A 2.5% decline (-1.5% y/y) in utility output accounted for most of last month's shortfall in production. Mining output also fell 1.5% (-6.9% y/y).
Manufacturing sector production recovered 0.4% (1.9% y/y) following two months of 0.1% decline. Motor vehicle & parts production improved 0.7% (10.9% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Output of computers & electronic products recovered 0.2% (+0.7% y/y) after a 0.1% dip, while appliance, furniture & carpeting output strengthened 0.8% (3.5% y/y) after a 1.2% jump. In the nondurables consumer goods sector, output was off 0.4% (1.9% y/y) as food products production fell 0.5% (+2.4% y/y). Clothing output declined 2.7% both m/m and y/y after two months of decline. Chemical product manufacturing strengthened 1.1% (4.5% y/y) following a 0.6% increase. Business equipment production gained 0.2% (0.5% y/y) after dropping 0.5%. Production of industrial & other equipment increased 0.8% (-0.5% y/y), but information processing equipment output fell 0.3% (+0.7% y/y). Construction output jumped 1.7% (1.6% y/y), more-than- offsetting a 1.3% decline in September.
The special aggregate series indicated that production in high technology industries improved 0.7% (0.1% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. Computers & office equipment production fell 0.3% (+5.8% y/y), down for the third straight month, but communications equipment production recovered 0.3% (-2.6% y/y) after four months of decline. Manufacturing production, excluding both high-tech and autos, increased 0.3% (1.2% y/y) following a 0.1% dip.
The capacity utilization rate increased to 77.5% but remained below the recovery high of 79.0% reached in November. Mining sector utilization moved lower m/m to 80.5% and remained down from its 91.7% high reached in December. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate improved m/m to 76.4%, but data revisions raised the rate to roughly its recovery high. Industrial capacity increased 1.5% y/y, 1.2% in the factory sector.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | -1.3 |
| Business Equipment | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4.8 | -0.4 | 9.9 |
| Construction Supplies | 1.7 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 |
| Materials | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Utilities | -2.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | -1.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -2.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.5 | 77.7 | 78.0 | 78.5 | 78.1 | 76.7 | 76.7 |
| Manufacturing | 76.4 | 76.2 | 76.3 | 75.8 | 75.3 | 74.0 | 74.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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