Global| Jan 16 2015U.S. Industrial Production Dips M/M As Temperatures Warm; Yearly Gain Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production ticked 0.1% lower last month (+4.8% y/y) following an unrevised 1.3% jump. The latest gain was held back by a 7.4% slump (-5.4%) in utility output. The 4.3% average annual gain in total output, however, was the [...]
Industrial production ticked 0.1% lower last month (+4.8% y/y) following an unrevised 1.3% jump. The latest gain was held back by a 7.4% slump (-5.4%) in utility output. The 4.3% average annual gain in total output, however, was the strongest since 2010. Manufacturing sector production improved 0.3% (4.9% y/y) following a 1.3% rise, revised from 1.1%. For the year, factory output rose 3.6%, in the range of increases during the last four years. The December dip matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Consumer goods production declined 1.2% last month (+2.0% y/y) as nondurable goods output was off 1.3% (+0.9% y/y) and durable goods production declined 0.5% (+5.4% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts production fell 0.9% (+7.0% y/y) but appliance & furniture output rose 1.4%. Business equipment production nudged 0.1% higher (7.5% y/y). A 1.5% rise in information processing equipment offset a 0.9% decline (+5.3% y/y) in transit equipment.
Within the special aggregate series, high technology industries production ticked 0.1% higher (6.3% y/y). It was restrained by a 2.8% decline (-0.1% y/y) in computers & office equipment after a 1.0% jump. Factory sector production excluding the high-tech sector rose 0.3% (4.9% y/y) following a 1.3% increase. Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos improved 0.4% (4.6% y/y) after a 1.0% rise.
The capacity utilization rate fell to 79.7% from its recovery high of 80.0%. For the year, utilization averaged 78.0%, the highest level since 2007. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate was unchanged at 78.4%, the expansion high. During all of last year, the utilization rate of 76.1% was the highest since 2007. Total industry capacity rose an improved 3.2% y/y in December while factory sector capacity increased 2.2% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Consumer Goods | -1.2 | 2.6 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Business Equipment | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 7.5 |
| Construction Supplies | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Materials | 0.4 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Utilities | -7.4 | 4.2 | 0.5 | -5.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 79.7 | 80.0 | 79.2 | 78.5 | 79.2 | 78.0 | 77.3 |
| Manufacturing | 78.4 | 78.4 | 77.5 | 76.4 | 77.2 | 76.1 | 75.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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