Global| Jun 15 2015U.S. Industrial Production Declines Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall industrial output fell 0.2% during May (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.5% drop in April, initially reported as -0.3%. A 0.2% rise in production had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing sector [...]
Overall industrial output fell 0.2% during May (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.5% drop in April, initially reported as -0.3%. A 0.2% rise in production had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing sector production eased 0.2% (+1.8% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick, revised from no change. Mining output fell 0.3% (-7.2% y/y), the seventh decline in the last eight months. Utility output improved 0.2% (1.3% y/y) after a 3.7% drop.
Within the factory sector, automotive products production rose 1.9% (8.8% y/y), the third firm gain in a row. Appliance, furniture & carpeting output eased 0.3% (+3.3% y/y) following a 2.2% rise. Business equipment production increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. Transit equipment output gained 0.6% (3.5% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. In the nondurables sector, clothing output remained unchanged (2.3% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Chemical product manufacturing declined 0.5% (+2.4% y/y), the third decline this year.
The special aggregate series indicated that production in high technology industries increased 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Computers & office equipment output increased 0.8% (7.7% y/y) and communications equipment production gained 0.4% but was unchanged y/y. Factory sector production excluding the high-tech sector fell 0.2% (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos was off 0.3% (1.5% y/y) after remaining unchanged.
The capacity utilization rate fell to 78.1% and remained below the recovery high of 79.8% reached in November. Mining sector utilization plunged to 83.3%, the lowest level since early 2011. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate slipped to 77.0%, down from 78.1% in November. Total industry capacity rose 2.8% y/y while factory sector capacity increased 2.0% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Manufacturing | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.3 | -0.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Business Equipment | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 7.5 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.3 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Materials | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Utilities | 0.2 | -3.7 | - 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.1 | 78.3 | 78.8 | 79.1 | 79.1 | 78.0 | 77.3 |
| Manufacturing | 77.0 | 77.2 | 77.2 | 77.1 | 77.2 | 76.1 | 75.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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