Global| Dec 16 2015U.S. Industrial Production Declines for a Third Consecutive Month; Factory Output Holds Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall industrial output fell 0.6% during November (-1.2% y/y) following a 0.4% October decline, revised from -0.2%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% fall. A 4.3% decline (-7.6% y/y) in utility output accounted [...]
Overall industrial output fell 0.6% during November (-1.2% y/y) following a 0.4% October decline, revised from -0.2%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% fall. A 4.3% decline (-7.6% y/y) in utility output accounted for most of last month's shortfall in production. Mining output also fell 1.1% (-8.2% y/y) after a 2.4% drop.
Manufacturing sector production remained unchanged (1.0% y/y) following a 0.3% increase. Output of electrical equipment & appliances fell 1.3% (+5.3% y/y) following a 3.6% jump. Motor vehicle & parts production declined 1.0% (+5.5% y/y) and reversed the prior month's increase. Primary metals production was off 2.8% (7.0% y/y), the fourth decline in the last five months. Furniture output eased 0.1% (+2.8% y/y) following six months of increase but computer & electronic components output rose 0.7% (1.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. In the nondurable goods sector, production recovered 0.5% (1.6% y/y) following two months of little change. Food & beverage output led the gain with a 1.0% rise (1.6% y/y) after two months of sharp decline. Petroleum & coal product output rose 0.4% (3.5% y/y), about the same as in the prior two months. Chemical production rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. To the downside, apparel output fell 1.3% (-5.6% y/y) following a 3.7% drop and textile production declined 0.6% (+0.4% y/y) after a 2.1% jump.
The special aggregate series indicated that production in high technology industries improved 0.2% (0.7% y/y) after two months of strong increase. Computers & office equipment production fell 2.9% (+3.5% y/y), down for the third month in four, but communications equipment production edged 0.1% higher (-5.7% y/y) after declining sharply in four of the prior five months. Manufacturing production, excluding both high-tech and autos, improved 0.1% (0.6% y/y) following a 0.2% rise.
The capacity utilization rate declined to 77.0% and remained below the recovery high of 79.0% reached one year ago. Mining sector utilization moved lower m/m to 79.4% and remained down from its 91.7% high reached last December. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate eased m/m to 76.2%. Industrial capacity increased 1.5% y/y, and by 1.2% in the factory sector.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | -1.3 |
| Business Equipment | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 4.8 | -0.4 | 9.9 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.2 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 |
| Materials | -0.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Utilities | -4.3 | -2.8 | 1.6 | -7.6 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -2.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.0 | 77.5 | 77.9 | 79.0 | 78.1 | 76.7 | 76.7 |
| Manufacturing | 76.2 | 76.3 | 76.1 | 76.4 | 75.3 | 74.0 | 74.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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