Global| Dec 14 2016U.S. Industrial Production Declines; Factory Output Eases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial output declined 0.4% during November (-0.6% y/y) following a 0.1% October uptick, revised from no change. The latest reading disappointed expectations for a 0.2% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory [...]
Industrial output declined 0.4% during November (-0.6% y/y) following a 0.1% October uptick, revised from no change. The latest reading disappointed expectations for a 0.2% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Factory sector production eased 0.1% last month (0.1% y/y) following a 0.3% increase. Consumer goods production fell 0.5% (+0.9% y/y) after a 0.1% easing. In the durable goods sector, computers and video & audio equipment production fell 0.8% (+2.9% y/y) after a 6.3% jump. Furniture & appliance production fell 0.8% (+0.7% y/y) following a 1.0% rise. Motor vehicle & parts production declined 2.6% (+6.4% y/y). In the nondurable goods area, clothing output declined 0.8% (-3.1% y/y), but chemical production improved 0.1% (-2.2% y/y). Paper output declined 0.5% (-5.8% y/y). In the capital goods sector, production fell 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Transit equipment production fell 0.2% (-2.0% y/y), but information processing equipment increased 0.5% (5.2% y/y). Construction supplies production gained 0.7% (0.6% y/y).
In the materials sector, a 0.7% decline in output (-1.6% y/y) reflected a 0.4% decline (-0.6% y/y) in durables and a 0.1% uptick (-0.2% y/y) in nondurables. Energy materials production was off 1.7% (-3.6% y/y).
Utilities output fell 4.4% (-1.9% y/y) but mining output increased 1.1% (-4.6% y/y).
In the special industrial output groupings, computers, communications equipment & semiconductor output rose 0.1% (5.4% y/y). Computer & peripheral equipment output fell 1.7% (+19.2% y/y) but communications equipment output improved 0.5% (7.4% y/y). Overall factory sector production excluding both the high-tech and automotive sectors rose 0.1% (-0.5% y/y) following a 0.2% increase.
Capacity utilization declined to 75.0%, its lowest level since March. Factory sector utilization eased to 74.8%, but remained below the 2014 peak of 76.3%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Manufacturing | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Business Equipment | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -0.2 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Materials | -0.7 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Utilities | -4.4 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -1.9 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Mining | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.1 | -4.6 | -1.8 | 11.0 | 6.5 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 75.0 | 75.4 | 75.4 | 75.7 | 76.7 | 78.2 | 76.9 |
| Manufacturing | 74.8 | 74.9 | 74.8 | 75.3 | 75.5 | 75.4 | 74.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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