Global| Oct 16 2015U.S. Industrial Production Continues to Soften
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall industrial output eased 0.2% during September (+0.4% y/y) following a 0.1% dip in August, last month reported as -0.4%. The latest decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing sector [...]
Overall industrial output eased 0.2% during September (+0.4% y/y) following a 0.1% dip in August, last month reported as -0.4%. The latest decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing sector production dipped 0.1 % (+1.3% y/y) following a 0.4% fall. Mining output was off 2.0% (-5.7 % y/y), the most since May. Utility output gained 1.3% (1.0% y/y) for a second straight month.
Within the factory sector, motor vehicle & parts production improved 0.2% (9.4% y/y) after a 5.4% slump. Output of computers & electronic products fell 0.2% (+0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Appliance, furniture & carpeting output eased 0.3% (+1.6% y/y) after a 0.7% fall. Business equipment production dipped 0.1% (+1.8% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. In the nondurables consumer goods sector, output rose 0.4% (1.9% y/y) as food products production increased 0.7% (2.3% y/y). Clothing output gained 0.1% both m/m and y/y after a 0.2% decline. Chemical product manufacturing also improved 0.1% (2.5% y/y) after a 0.2% decline.
The special aggregate series indicated that production in high technology industries declined 0.5% (-1.1% y/y) after a 0.4% drop. Computers & office equipment production fell 1.5% (+7.7% y/y) and communications equipment production eased 0.5% (+1.7% y/y). Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos slipped 0.1% (+0.9% y/y).
The capacity utilization rate declined to 77.5% and remained below the recovery high of 79.0% reached in November. Mining sector utilization moved lower m/m to 81.9% and remained down from its 91.7% high reached in December. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate backpedaled m/m to 75.9% and has moved sideways since the middle of last year. Industrial capacity increased 1.2% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Manufacturing | -0.1 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Consumer Goods | 0.2 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | -1.3 |
| Business Equipment | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 4.8 | -0.4 | 9.9 |
| Construction Supplies | -1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 |
| Materials | -0.3 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Utilities | 1.3 | 1.3 | -1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -2.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.5 | 77.8 | 78.0 | 78.2 | 78.1 | 76.7 | 76.7 |
| Manufacturing | 75.9 | 78.1 | 76.4 | 75.7 | 75.3 | 74.0 | 74.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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