Global| Mar 16 2012U.S. Industrial Output Is Stable; Factory Output Gains
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The weather can immensely impact factory output, and during the last few months that was notably true. Industrial production was unchanged last month (4.0% y/y) following a revised 0.4% January rise, initially reported as no change. [...]
The weather can immensely impact factory output, and during the last
few months that was notably true. Industrial production was unchanged last month
(4.0% y/y) following a
revised 0.4% January rise, initially reported as no change. The latest figure
disappointed Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase according to Action
Economics. Factory sector output added 0.2% (5.0% y/y) to its
strengthened 1.1% January rise. Warm temperatures lowered utility
output by another 0.1% last month (-7.1% y/y) and mining output was off
1.2% (+4.3% y/y).
Business equipment production continued strong with a 0.6% rise. During the last twelve months, output increased 10.8% and equaled last year's rise. This y/y gain still reflects a one-quarter y/y rise in transit equipment, 9.0% y/y growth in information processing & other and a 6.3% y/y rise in industrial supplies & other. In the consumer sector, where output rose 1.5% y/y, auto production jumped 13.8% y/y while computers, video & audio posted a modest 2.9% y/y gain. Appliance, furniture & carpeting production rose 3.8% y/y. Nondurables output rose 2.0% y/y but clothing production was off 1.2% y/y. Excluding the high-tech & motor vehicle industries, industrial production increased 3.7% y/y as of February following like y/y gains in 2011 and 2010.
Capacity utilization slipped to 78.7% last month. In manufacturing alone, utilization ticked up to 77.4%, up from the recession low of 64.4%. Overall capacity is estimated to have risen 1.2% y/y following a 0.3% uptick last year and a 2.2% decline during 2010. In the factory sector, capacity rose 1.0% y/y but excluding the high-tech industries the rise was just 0.3% following four years of decline.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Policy Initiatives in the Global Recession: What Did Forecasters Expect? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | -11.2 |
| Manufacturing | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | -13.5 |
| Consumer Goods | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -7.2 |
| Business Equipment | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 7.7 | -16.3 |
| Construction Supplies | 1.1 | -0.1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -22.5 |
| Materials | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | -11.6 |
| Utilities | 0.0 | -2.2 | -3.1 | -5.6 | -0.1 | 4.0 | -2.6 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.7 | 78.8 | 78.5 | 76.5 | 77.3 | 74.5 | 69.1 |
| Manufacturing | 77.4 | 77.3 | 76.5 | 74.4 | 74.9 | 71.7 | 66.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
