Global| Jun 15 2011U.S. Industrial Activity Disappoints; Factory Sector Activity Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. industrial production ticked up 0.1% last month after an unrevised no-change during April. The latest figure was weaker than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain according to Action Economics. However, weather played a big [...]
U.S. industrial production ticked up 0.1% last
month after an unrevised no-change during April. The latest figure was
weaker than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain according to Action
Economics. However, weather played a big factor in the May weakness as
utility output fell 2.7%. The gain in factory sector output improved to
0.4%.
Last month's overall improvement owed to a 2.6% rise (6.8% y/y) in furniture output and a 0.8% gain (6.1% y/y) in apparel. Output of high technology products similarly was strong and rose 1.3% (9.8% y/y) led by a 1.6% rise (10.8% y/y) in semiconductors and equipment. Lagging was motor vehicle output which fell 1.4% (+2.2% y/y). Less both the auto and high-tech sectors, May production rose 0.5% (3.4% y/y) after a 3.7% gain during all of last year. Amongst soft goods, apparel production rose 0.8% last month (6.1% y/y) and chemical production gained 0.3% (3.0% y/y).
Capacity utilization overall held steady at 76.7% but was up sharply versus the recession low of 67.3%. In manufacturing alone, utilization rose m/m to 74.5%, also up from the recession low of 64.4%. Notable has been the rise in the computer & electronics industries to 79.3% from a low of 68.6%. Overall, capacity rose 0.2% y/y last month after a 2.2% drop during all of 2010.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The IP database contains figures with more decimal precision and includes extensive lists of "relative importance" numbers for several breakdowns of production by industry and market group. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Fiscal Sustainability is the title of yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it can be found here.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 5.3 | -11.2 | -3.7 |
| Manufacturing | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 5.4 | -13.5 | -5.0 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 4.3 | -7.2 | -5.2 |
| Business Equipment | 1.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 9.3 | 7.7 | -16.3 | -2.5 |
| Construction Supplies | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | -22.5 | -9.7 |
| Materials | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.3 | -11.6 | -2.7 |
| Utilities | -2.7 | 2.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 4.0 | -2.6 | -0.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 76.7 | 76.7 | 76.8 | 74.3 | 74.5 | 69.1 | 77.8 |
| Manufacturing | 74.5 | 74.2 | 74.7 | 71.7 | 71.7 | 66.2 | 74.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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