Global| Mar 17 2016U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Edges Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators improved 0.1% during February (2.3% y/y), following declines during the prior two months. The improvement fell short of expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators improved 0.1% during February (2.3% y/y), following declines during the prior two months. The improvement fell short of expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for a 0.2% rise. The three-month change in the index fell to -1.6% (AR), its weakest reading since August 2012. Fewer building permits, lower stock prices, a weaker ISM new orders index, fewer nondefense capital goods orders and lower consumer expectations for business & economic conditions accounted for the decline. These losses were partially offset by a steeper interest rate yield curve, the leading credit index and improved new orders for consumer goods.
The coincident index nudged 0.1% higher (1.8% y/y) after an unrevised 0.3% rise in January. It was the weakest gain in three months. Three-month growth improved, however, to 2.1% (AR), its best since October. Nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales contributed to last month's rise, but industrial production fell.
The lagging index increased 0.4% (3.8% y/y) after an unrevised 0.1% gain. Three-month growth slowed to 2.0% (AR), the weakest rate since June 2013. More C&I loans, a stronger services CPI and firmer unit labor costs contributed positively to the index rise last month.
The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio declined to its lowest level of the economic expansion.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| Coincident | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Lagging | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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