Global| Dec 13 2018U.S. Import Prices Weaken As Petroleum Prices Fall; Export Prices Also Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices fell 1.6% (+0.7% y/y) during November following an unrevised 0.5% October rise. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. The decline in import [...]
Import prices fell 1.6% (+0.7% y/y) during November following an unrevised 0.5% October rise. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The decline in import prices last month was led by a 12.1% drop (+4.4% y/y) in petroleum import costs which followed a 2.7% rise. Nonpetroleum import prices eased 0.3% during November (+0.4% y/y) and reversed October's 0.2% increase. Industrial supplies & materials costs declined 5.3%% (+3.2% y/y), with lower oil prices, as it followed a 1.4% rise. Industrial materials prices excluding petroleum ticked 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) following stability during the prior month. Motor vehicle & parts prices held steady (+0.3% y/y) for the fourth month in the last five. Nonauto consumer goods prices also were unchanged (0.4% y/y) following a 0.3% decline.
Export prices declined 0.9% during November (+1.8% y/y) after a 0.5% gain, revised from 0.4%. A 0.4% decline in prices had been expected.
Agricultural commodities prices increased 1.8% last month (-1.7% y/y) after easing 0.2% in October. Nonagricultural costs declined 1.0% (+2.2% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage prices improved 1.9% (-1.4% y/y) following a 0.2% gain. The cost of industrial supplies & materials weakened 3.0% (+4.0% y/y) after rising 1.4%. Excluding fuels & building materials, these prices slipped 0.2% (+2.5% y/y). Capital goods prices held steady (1.5% y/y) for the third straight month. Motor vehicle & parts prices eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) and have been little-changed for four consecutive months. Nonauto consumer goods prices also slipped 0.1% (+0.4% y/y) after holding steady for four straight months.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -1.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.9 | -3.3 | -10.2 |
| Petroleum & Petroleum Products | -12.1 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 26.6 | -19.7 | -46.0 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -1.5 | -2.8 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | -3.2 | -6.3 |
| Agricultural | 1.8 | -0.2 | -1.2 | -1.7 | 1.5 | -5.4 | -13.3 |
| Nonagricultural | -1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | -3.0 | -5.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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