Global| May 10 2017U.S. Import Prices Strengthen as Oil Rebounds
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices increased 0.5% during April (4.1% y/y) following a 0.1% March uptick, revised from -0.2%. It was the strongest rise in three months. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures [...]
Import prices increased 0.5% during April (4.1% y/y) following a 0.1% March uptick, revised from -0.2%. It was the strongest rise in three months. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Petroleum import prices increased 1.6% (43.8% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Nonpetroleum import prices improved 0.4%, the firmest gain in nine months. The y/y increase accelerated to 1.4%, the strongest twelve-month rise in five years. Industrial supplies & materials prices excluding petroleum strengthened 0.9% (7.9% y/y), strong for the sixth consecutive month. Motor vehicle & parts prices jumped 0.5% (0.4% y/y) after five years of falling prices. Capital goods prices ticked 0.1% higher (-0.3% y/y) after declining from 2013 through 2016. Capital goods prices excluding computers, peripherals & semiconductors also rose 0.1% (-0.1% y/y). Consumer goods prices excluding autos gained 0.1%, with the y/y rise of 0.2% contrasting with price deflation during the prior two years.
Export prices improved an expected 0.2% (3.0% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick, revised from 0.2%.
Agricultural commodity prices increased 0.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 0.8% gain. Nonagricultural export prices improved 0.1% for the second straight month and the 2.9% y/y increase followed declines in each year since 2012. Foods, feeds & beverage prices strengthened 0.8% (5.1% y/y) following three years of decline. Industrial supplies & materials costs fell 0.2% (+9.4% y/y), as petroleum prices strengthened 34.4% y/y. Nonagricultural supplies & materials prices excluding fuels & building materials declined 0.9% (+2.4% y/y) and reversed the prior month's gain. Capital goods prices improved 0.2% (0.6% y/y) while computer & peripheral product prices rose 0.6% (-1.8% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts prices improved 0.3% both m/m and y/y. Nonauto consumer goods prices held steady, and the 2.1% y/y decline also was fairly constant.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 4.1 | -3.3 | -10.2 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | 1.6 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 43.8 | -19.7 | -46.0 | -5.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | -1.5 | -2.8 | 0.1 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.0 | -3.2 | -6.3 | -0.5 |
| Agricultural | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 4.6 | -5.4 | -13.3 | -2.7 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.9 | -3.0 | -5.5 | -0.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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