Global| Apr 12 2016U.S. Import Prices Rise With Higher Oil Costs; Nonoil Prices Continue Falling
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices improved 0.2% during March (-6.2% y/y) following a 0.4% February decline, revised from -0.3%. The increase was much softer than the 1.0% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Petroleum import prices [...]
Import prices improved 0.2% during March (-6.2% y/y) following a 0.4% February decline, revised from -0.3%. The increase was much softer than the 1.0% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Petroleum import prices rebounded 6.5% (-39.5% y/y) following a 6.2% drop, revised from -4.0%. Nonpetroleum import prices were off 0.2% (-2.7% y/y) after two straight 0.1% dips. These prices have not risen m/m since March of 2014. Foods, feeds & beverage prices fell 0.6% (-4.6% y/y). Nonoil industrial supplies & materials costs remained unchanged (-9.3% y/y) while motor vehicle & parts prices improved 0.1% (-0.9% y/y). Capital goods prices were off 0.1% (-2.1% y/y), and nonauto consumer goods prices dropped 0.3% (-0.1% y/y), the first decline since August.
Export prices remained unchanged following a 0.5% decline, earlier reported as -0.4%. A 0.2% decline was expected. Prices have fallen 12.4% since the peak in March 2014.
Agricultural commodities prices declined 2.5% (-11.1% y/y) while nonagricultural commodity prices improved 0.3% (-5.6% y/y), the first increase since May. Foods, feeds & beverage prices declined 2.5% (-11.3% y/y) and motor vehicle & pars prices were off 0.2% (-0.7% y/y), the fifth decline in six months. Working the other way, industrial supplies & materials prices rose 0.7% (-14.5% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods prices gained 0.1% (-2.0% y/y). Capital goods prices remained unchanged (-0.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.2 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -6.2 | -10.2 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | 6.5 | -6.2 | -17.2 | -39.5 | -46.0 | -5.6 | -2.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -2.7 | -2.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -6.1 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Agricultural | -2.5 | 0.6 | -1.3 | -11.1 | -13.3 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.3 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -5.6 | -5.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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