Global| Oct 12 2018U.S. Import Prices Rise With Higher Fuel Costs; Export Prices Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August decline, revised from -0.6%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. Strength [...]
Import prices increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August decline, revised from -0.6%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Strength in import prices last month was paced by a 4.1% increase (32.1% y/y) in petroleum prices which followed a 2.3% fall. Nonpetroleum import prices held steady (0.6% y/y) following three consecutive months of decline. Industrial supplies & materials costs rose 1.5% (14.8% y/y) and reversed the August decline. Industrial materials prices excluding petroleum eased 0.5% (+4.1% y/y) after falling for two months. Capital goods prices held steady, both m/m and y/y, after a 0.1% dip. Motor vehicle & parts prices also were unchanged (0.1% y/y) for the third straight month. Nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.1% (+0.6% y/y) following no change in August.
Export prices held steady last month (2.7% y/y) after a 0.2% slip, revised from -0.1%. A 0.1% rise in prices had been expected.
Agricultural commodities prices fell 1.4% (-2.3% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Nonagricultural costs improved 0.2% (3.3% y/y) and reversed the prior month's decline. Foods, feeds & beverage prices fell 1.4% (-2.6% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. The cost of industrial supplies & materials gained 0.2% (6.6% y/y) after two months of decline. Capital goods prices ticked 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) for the fifth straight month. Motor vehicle & parts prices also improved 0.1% (0.7% y/y) after four months of little change. Nonauto consumer goods prices held steady (0.5% y/y) following a 0.1% dip.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | -3.3 | -10.2 |
| Petroleum & Petroleum Products | 4.1 | -2.3 | 0.5 | 32.1 | 26.6 | -19.7 | -46.0 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | -1.5 | -2.8 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | -3.2 | -6.3 |
| Agricultural | -1.4 | 0.3 | -5.2 | -2.3 | 1.5 | -5.4 | -13.3 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | -3.0 | -5.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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