Global| Nov 10 2010U.S. Import Prices Recover With Rise In Oil
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The recent volatility of oil prices has dominated the monthly ups and downs of U.S. import prices. During October there was a clear upward influence as there has been through this year. Import prices jumped 0.9% last month following a [...]
The recent volatility of oil prices has dominated the monthly ups and downs of U.S. import prices. During October there was a clear upward influence as there has been through this year. Import prices jumped 0.9% last month following a 0.1% September downtick, initially reported as -0.3%. The increase fell short of Consensus expectations for a 1.1% gain. A 3.3% rise (7.6% y/y) in petroleum prices accompanied a 0.4% increase (2.7% y/y) in nonoil prices.
The 3.3% rise in petroleum prices pulled them up 7.6% y/y. So far this month, Brent crude oil prices have risen another 4.4% to $86.89 per barrel compared to $83.26 in October. Non-oil import prices rose 0.4% during October and have increased 1.5% since year-end. (The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has had a negative 81% correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.)
Imported food & beverage prices rose 9.8% y/y compared to a 2.8% decline during 2009. Prices for non-auto consumer goods fell 0.6% y/y. Appliance prices rose 0.1% y/y) following a 0.8% gain in 2009. Furniture prices fell 2.0% y/y and home entertainment equipment prices declined another 8.5%. Imported auto prices rose 0.8% y/y after a 0.4% increase last year and capital goods slipped 0.1% y/y. Computer & peripherals prices fell 2.5% from last October while excluding computers, capital goods prices rose 0.9% y/y after the 0.7% rise during 2009.
Total export prices rose 0.8% last month and pulled prices up 5.8% y/y. The gain reflected a 2.5% rise (15.7% y/y) in agricultural export prices after a 12.8% decline last year. Non-agricultural goods prices rose 0.7% (4.8% y/y) after a 3.7% decline in 2008.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Oct | Sept | Aug | Oct. Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 3.6 | -11.5 | 11.5 | 4.2 |
| Petroleum | 3.3 | -1.5 | 1.4 | 7.6 | -35.9 | 37.7 | 11.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.7 | -4.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 5.8 | -4.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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