Global| Jul 13 2007U.S. Import Prices Jumped Again in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Surging petroleum prices fueled a 1.0% jump in overall import prices last month. The jump was about equal to the May rise and easily beat Consensus expectations for a 0.6% gain. The increase occurred as petroleum import prices surged [...]
The increase occurred as petroleum import prices surged 4.7% in June after sharp increases during five of the prior six months. Further increases in July in the price of Brent crude oil to $77.12 from an average $71.0 during June promise another price gain this month. Less petroleum import prices rose a modest 0.2 following the May jump of 0.5%. During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies.
Why a Dollar Depreciation May Not Close the U.S. Trade Deficit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here
Prices for industrial supplies & materials surged 2.6% (4.4% y/y) due to surge in oil prices. Less oil these prices rose 0.5% (7.5% y/y).
Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) after no change in May. Computers, peripheral and semiconductors fell 0.1% (-5.2% y/y) and less high tech, capital goods prices were unchanged (3.1% y/y). Prices for nonauto consumer goods were unchanged (1.5% y/y).
Export prices rose 0.3%. Nonagricultural export prices rose just 0.1% (2.9% y/y).
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | June | May | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
| Petroleum | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 20.6% | 37.6% | 30.5% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Export- All Commodities | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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