Global| Jan 11 2008U.S. Import Prices Flat as Oil Levels Off
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall import prices were unchanged, as expected, last month after the revised 3.3% spurt during November. Petroleum prices, overall, eased 0.6% after the 12.7% November surge. Crude petroleum prices rose 0.6% (53.5% y/y) after a [...]
Overall import prices were unchanged, as expected, last month after the revised 3.3% spurt during November.
Petroleum prices, overall, eased 0.6% after the 12.7% November surge. Crude petroleum prices rose 0.6% (53.5% y/y) after a 12.0% November jump while fuel oil prices fell 5.5% (+43.5% y/y).
Less petroleum, import prices rose 0.3% after a 0.7% November gain.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a reduced 47% against a broader basket of currencies for industrial supplies & materials excluding petroleum rose another 0.7% (6.9% y/y). The detailed import price series can be found in the Haver USINT database.
Capital goods import prices were unchanged (0.8% y/y). Prices of computers, peripheral and semiconductors fell 0.6% (-5.3% y/y) and less the high tech sector capital goods prices rose 0.3% (3.4% y/y).
Prices for imports of nonauto consumer goods rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) as apparel prices rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y). These prices had been unchanged or declining through 2004 to 2006. Prices for household goods rose 0.1% (1.2% y/y) and that y/y growth has been fairly stable.
The gain in overall export prices eased to 0.4%, half the prior month's increase. Agricultural prices surged again, last month by 2.7% (23.5% y/y) which was double the November increase. Prices for nonagricultural price goods eased to a 0.3% (4.5% y/y) rise after a 0.9% surge during November.
Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stumbling Blocks or Stepping Stones to Financial Globalization? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | December | November | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.0% | 3.3% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% |
| Petroleum | -0.6% | 12.7% | 50.1% | 11.7% | 20.6% | 37.6% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% |
| Export- All Commodities | 0.4% | 0.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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