Global| Dec 13 2016U.S. Import Prices Ease as Oil Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices slipped 0.3% during November (-0.1% y/y) following a 0.4% October increase, revised from 0.5%. A 0.4% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. A 4.7% [...]
Import prices slipped 0.3% during November (-0.1% y/y) following a 0.4% October increase, revised from 0.5%. A 0.4% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
A 4.7% decline (+2.4% y/y) in petroleum import prices led the fall in the overall import price index, as it followed a 7.3% jump. Nonpetroleum import prices were unchanged (-0.2% y/y), and have been for four months. Prices for non-oil industrial supplies & materials increased 0.3% (0.7% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Foods, feeds & beverage costs jumped 1.5% (5.6% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Motor vehicle & parts prices eased 0.1% (0.0% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices slipped 0.1% (-0.6% y/y), and reversed the prior month's increase. Capital goods prices declined 0.2% (-1.6% y/y), down 3.9% over the last three years. Capital goods prices excluding computers, peripherals & semiconductors eased 0.1% (-1.1% y/y) for a second month.
Export prices eased 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% gain. A 0.2% decline had been expected.
Agricultural commodity prices increased 0.6% (-1.2% y/y) following as 0.5% gain. Nonagricultural goods costs eased 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Foods, feeds & beverage prices jumped 0.7% (-1.3% y/y) following declines in three of the prior four months. Industrial supplies & materials slipped 0.3% (+0.8% y/y) following two months of strong increase. Motor vehicle & parts prices remained unchanged (-0.6% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.7% (-1.9% y/y), down for the third month in four. Capital goods prices remained steady for the third straight month (-0.3% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -10.2 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | -4.7 | 7.3 | 0.6 | 2.4 | -46.0 | -5.6 | -2.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Agricultural | 0.6 | 0.5 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -13.3 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| Nonagricultural | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -5.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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