Global| Dec 11 2008U.S. Import Prices Down Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total U.S. import prices declined another 6.7% last month after the revised 5.4% drop during October. Consensus expectations had been for a 4.8% November decline. Petroleum prices were off sharply again by 25.8% and this month [...]
Total U.S. import prices declined another 6.7% last month after the revised 5.4% drop during October. Consensus expectations had been for a 4.8% November decline.
Petroleum prices were off sharply again by 25.8% and this month imported crude petroleum prices are down another 20% m/m.
November import prices less petroleum doubled their decline of October and fell 1.8%. During the last three months prices fell at a 13.2% annual rate versus the 12%-to-13% rates of positive growth this past spring. Growth in import prices will slow further given the recent rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. During the last ten years there has been an 83% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices.
Capital goods import prices fell 0.4%. On a three-month basis prices fell at a 2.5% annual rate after a 5%-to-6% rate of increase earlier this year. Less the lower prices of computers, capital goods prices also fell 0.4% and the three-month growth went to a negative 1.4% after 9.0% growth earlier this year. Prices of computers, peripherals & accessories were down at a 6.8% rate during the last three months.
Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.3%. The rate of increase during the last three months went to a negative 1.1% versus the 5.9% peak earlier this year. Durable goods prices overall rose were unchanged during the last three months versus a 6.2% rate of increase earlier this year.
Total export prices fell 3.2% due to a 7.0% (-2.8% y/y) decline in agricultural prices. Nonagricultural export prices also fell by 2.9% and they were unchanged y/y. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | November | October | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | -6.7 | -5.4 | -4.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 7.5 |
| Petroleum | -25.8 | -19.8 | -29.0 | 11.6 | 20.6 | 37.6 |
| Non-petroleum | -1.8 | -0.9 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Export- All Commodities | -3.2 | -2.0 | -0.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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