Global| May 13 2015U.S. Import Prices Decline Despite Petroleum Price Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices declined 0.3% (-10.7% y/y) last month following a 0.2% March fall, revised from -0.3%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a 0.2% rise. Prices of petroleum imports increased 1.0% (-47.0% y/y) after a 1.6% [...]
Import prices declined 0.3% (-10.7% y/y) last month following a 0.2% March fall, revised from -0.3%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a 0.2% rise.
Prices of petroleum imports increased 1.0% (-47.0% y/y) after a 1.6% rise. Nonpetroleum import prices, however, were off 0.4% (-2.7% y/y) for a second month. Industrial materials prices excluding petroleum continued downward by 1.1% (-8.6% y/y), about the same as during the prior three months. Building materials prices declined 1.1% (-3.4% y/y). Prices amongst the other end-use categories also continued to fall. Food, feed & beverage prices declined 0.9% (-2.4% y/y) and autos & parts prices were unchanged (-1.9% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices slipped 0.1% (-0.8% y/y) while capital goods prices were off 0.3% (-1.3% y/y).
Export prices also continued weak. Their 0.7% decline followed a 0.1% uptick. No change had been expected. Agricultural export prices declined 0.8% (-15.6% y/y) while non-agricultural prices were off 0.7% (-5.3% y/y). Overall industrial materials & supplies prices declined 1.5% (-14.2% y/y), reflecting a 5.6% decline (-35.8% y/y) in petroleum prices. That was accompanied by a 0.8% drop (-14.7% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverage prices. Prices excluding foods and fuels edged 0.2% lower (-1.9% y/y), down for the eighth straight month. Capital goods export prices were off 0.3% (+0.3% y/y) and prices excluding computers & peripheral slipped 0.1% (+0.9% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.3 (-2.2% y/y) but autos & parts prices ticked 0.1% higher (0.1% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures, including the industrial materials excluding petroleum imports and the fuel & lubricant export items mentioned above, are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -10.7 | -1.1 | -1.1 | 0.3 |
| Petroleum | 1.0 | 1.6 | -1.4 | -47.0 | -5.6 | -2.6 | -0.3 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| Agricultural | -0.8 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -5.6 | -2.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Nonagricultural | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -5.3 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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