Global| Jul 14 2010U.S. Import Prices Decline Across-the Board
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
The upward pressure on import prices continues to diminish. U.S. import
prices in June fell 1.3%, their second consecutive monthly decline and the
largest since early-last year. Moreover, the y/y gain fell to its least since
November. The decline exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.3% drop. Petroleum
prices fell 4.4% and repeated their May decline while excluding petroleum import
prices fell by 0.5% and reversed the May increase.
Due to the recent declines, energy prices are roughly unchanged from December after last year's 78.6% increase from December-to-December. Last week, Brent crude oil prices rose to $77.20 per barrel versus $74.80 in June. Non-oil import prices reversed all of the May increase with a 0.5% decline, perhaps reflecting some softening in the economy's growth rate. As a result, prices are up just 0.9% since year-end. From December-to-December price fell 0.2% in 2009. (During the last ten years, there has been a negative 81% correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non-oil import prices.)
Food & beverage prices reversed their May increase with a 1.7% decline (+6.2 y/y). That compares to a 2.8% decline during 2009. Prices for nonauto consumer goods slipped 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.3% decline last year. Appliance prices strengthened at a 2.7% rate after last year's modest increase. Furniture prices have fallen 4.5% while apparel prices ticked up at a 0.4% rate. Imported auto prices fell at a 1.7% rate YTD after a 0.1% dip last year. Capital goods slipped 1.3% YTD and excluding computers prices slipped 0.7% YTD following a 0.7% gain last year.
Total export prices slipped 0.2% increase last month after a 0.6% May gain. The decline reflected a 0.2% dip (5.9% YTD) in non-agricultural export prices and a 0.1% slip in agricultural goods prices (+0.2% YTD).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | June | May | April | June Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | -1.3 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 4.5 | -11.5 | 11.5 | 4.2 |
| Petroleum | -4.4 | -4.2 | 3.6 | 11.7 | -35.9 | 37.7 | 11.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.1 | -4.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Export - All Commodities | -0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.3 | -4.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
