Global| Jul 13 2011U.S. Import Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Pricing strength receded further amongst internationally traded goods last month. Overall U.S. import prices fell 0.5% after a little-revised 0.1% May increase. The decline roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 0.7% drop. [...]
Pricing strength receded further amongst internationally traded goods last month. Overall U.S. import prices fell 0.5% after a little-revised 0.1% May increase. The decline roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 0.7% drop.
Weakness in petroleum prices, off 1.6%, led the decline as Brent crude oil fell to an average $114.04 per barrel (+53.2% y/y) versus the high of $122.68 averaged during April. Nonoil import prices also fell 0.2%, the first decline since last July. (The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has had an 81% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.)
Imported food & beverage prices fell 1.9% (+16.9% y/y), the second consecutive down month. Also, prices for nonoil industrial supplies fell 0.5% (+13.9% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods rose a minimal 0.1% (1.1% y/y). Apparel prices jumped 1.1% (7.9% y/y). However, furniture prices rose just 0.1% (4.0% y/y) and home entertainment equipment prices declined 2.5% (-11.9% y/y. Imported auto prices rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) while imported capital goods prices were unchanged (1.5% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices fell 0.2% during June (-3.9% y/y). Excluding computers, capital goods prices rose 0.2% and by a much-strengthened 3.9% y/y.
U.S. export prices rose just 0.1%. Agricultural prices rose 0.7%, up nearly one-third from last year, led by a one-half increase in the price of wheat. That gain was accompanied by no-change in non-agricultural goods (7.8% y/y). Prices of industrial supplies slipped 0.7% but remained up 19.8% y/y. Capital goods price gains also have been moderate. To the upside, nonauto consumer goods prices have risen 5.2% y/y.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Today's House testimony by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.5 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 13.6 | 6.9 | -11.5 | 11.5 |
| Petroleum | -1.6 | -0.9 | 8.1 | 49.8 | 28.4 | -35.9 | 37.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | -4.1 | 5.3 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | -4.6 | 6.0 |
| Agricultural | 0.7 | -2.0 | 0.4 | 31.2 | 7.9 | -12.8 | 21.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 7.8 | 4.6 | -3.7 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
