Global| Nov 14 2014U.S. Import Prices Continue Lower With Oil Costs
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices declined 1.3% (-1.8% y/y) during October after a 0.6% September drop, earlier reported as -0.5%. It was the fourth straight month of decline and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 6.9% fall [...]
Import prices declined 1.3% (-1.8% y/y) during October after a 0.6% September drop, earlier reported as -0.5%. It was the fourth straight month of decline and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 6.9% fall (-11.1% y/y) in petroleum prices led the decline in import costs. That was accompanied by a third straight 0.1% slip (+0.5% y/y) in nonoil prices.
Last month's drop in nonoil import prices reflected a 0.5% shortfall (+1.0% y/y) in nonoil industrial supplies prices, the sixth decline in the last seven months. Motor vehicle & parts prices were unchanged (-0.7% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.2% (+0.7%), following two months of being unchanged. Capital goods prices slipped 0.1% (-0.1% y/y), down or unchanged for four straight months. Prices for foods, feeds & beverages continued strong and rose 1.4% (3.7% y/y).
Export prices fell 1.0% (-0.8% y/y), off for a third straight month. A 0.4% decline had been expected. The 2.1% drop (-3.4% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverage prices was the fifth consecutive month of decline. Industrial materials prices fell 1.9% (-2.3% y/y) as petroleum & product prices declined 5.4% (-5.6% y/y), off 13.8% during the last seven months. Nonauto consumer goods prices were off 1.9% (-2.3% y/y) but motor vehicle & parts prices edged 0.2% higher (0.5% y/y). Capital goods prices moved 0.2% lower (+0.6% y/y), off for the third month in the last four.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -1.3 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.8 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 10.9 |
| Petroleum | -6.9 | -2.6 | -3.6 | -11.1 | -2.6 | -0.3 | 36.5 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 4.5 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -1.0 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 8.1 |
| Agricultural | -2.1 | -1.7 | -3.1 | -4.6 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 22.3 |
| Nonagricultural | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
