Global| Jan 12 2011U.S. Import Prices Again Lifted By Oil
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Higher oil prices continued to push up U.S. import prices. During December, import prices jumped another 1.1% after an upwardly revised 1.5% November increase, initially reported as 1.2%. The increase roughly matched Consensus [...]
Higher oil prices continued to push up U.S. import prices. During December, import prices jumped another 1.1% after an upwardly revised 1.5% November increase, initially reported as 1.2%. The increase roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 1.2% rise. For all of last year, a 6.8% gain in prices overall was paced by a 28.0% increase in petroleum. Nonpetroleum prices rose 2.8% and reversed most of the 4.1% decline during 2009.
Strength in petroleum prices continued this month. As of yesterday, Brent crude oil prices rose further to $98.69 per barrel compared to $92.06 in December. Non-oil import prices rose 0.4% during December and increased 2.8% for all of 2010. (The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has had an 81% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.)
Imported food & beverage prices led again the overall price gain with a 1.3% increase, up 8.3% for the full year compared to a 2.8% decline during 2009. Strength was across-the-board but strongest for meats & poultry (18.3% y/y). Prices for nonoil industrial supplies also jumped 12.5% y/y led by a 29.7% y/y increase in unfinished metals prices. Prices for non-auto consumer goods were unchanged for both the month and the whole year. Appliance prices fell 1.0% for the full year and furniture prices fell 2.9% y/y. Home entertainment equipment prices declined another 3.7% versus 2009. Imported auto prices were unchanged last month and rose a modest 0.6% for the year. Imported capital goods prices ticked 0.1% higher for the month but fell 0.3% for the year. Computer & peripherals prices fell 2.5% during all of the year but excluding computers, capital goods prices rose 0.5% y/y after the 0.7% rise during 2009.
Total export prices rose 10.7% last month and pulled prices up 7.8% during all of 2010 y/y. The gain reflected continued strength in agricultural exports, up 7.8% for the year. Non-agricultural goods prices rose 0.6% last month and 4.6% for the year. Strength has been notable for industrial supplies (11.4% y/y), a gain which reversed the 2009 decline, and nonauto consumer goods, up 2.1% after last year's 0.3% uptick.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database.
Inflation, Capital Inflows: Asia and the Challenges of Success in 2011 from the International Monetary Fund can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Dec. | Nov. | Oct. | Dec Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 6.8 | -11.5 | 11.5 |
| Petroleum | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 13.7 | 28.0 | -35.9 | 37.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | -4.1 | 5.3 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 4.9 | -4.6 | 6.0 |
| Agricultural | 1.7 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 20.2 | 7.8 | -12.8 | 21.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 5.1 | 4.6 | -3.7 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
