Global| Mar 14 2012U.S. Import Prices Again Firm Due To Oil
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. import prices rose 0.4% (5.5% y/y) last month after a revised no change during January, initially pegged as 0.3%. A 0.6% February rise had been expected. Year-to-year, higher oil prices and the lower value of the dollar raised [...]
U.S. import prices rose 0.4% (5.5% y/y) last month after a revised no change during January, initially pegged as 0.3%. A 0.6% February rise had been expected. Year-to-year, higher oil prices and the lower value of the dollar raised prices for imported products by 5.5%, although that rate of increase has diminished recently. Petroleum prices rose 1.8% last month after a downwardly revised 0.3% gain. Brent crude oil rose to an average $117.92 per barrel from January's $110.49 and so far this month have risen further to average $125.32. Non-oil import prices slipped 0.2% following no-change during January. The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last twenty years has a 59% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.
Imported food & beverage prices fell 3.0% last month (+2.0% y/y) while prices for non-oil industrial supplies increased 0.4% (-0.5% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods were unchanged (+2.3% y/y). Furniture prices slipped 0.1% (+5.1% y/y) and home entertainment equipment prices fell 0.3% (-5.2% y/y). Imported auto prices were unchanged (3.6% y/y) and imported capital goods prices slipped 0.1% (+1.1% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices were unchanged (-2.5% y/y) while excluding computers, capital goods prices also were stable (2.7% y/y).
U.S. export prices increased 0.4% (1.5% y/y) as nonagricultural prices rose 0.5% (2.6% y/y) but agricultural goods prices fell 0.9% (-6.2% y/y). Prices of industrial supplies rose 1.1% (1.9% y/y). Capital goods prices gained 0.2% (1.1% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y). Prices for exported autos & parts rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 10.9 | 6.9 | -11.5 |
| Petroleum | 1.8 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 18.4 | 36.4 | 28.4 | -35.9 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | -4.1 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 4.9 | -4.6 |
| Agricultural | -0.9 | 1.1 | -2.3 | -6.2 | 22.3 | 7.9 | -12.8 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 6.6 | 4.6 | -3.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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