Global| Aug 11 2016U.S. Import Price Rise Driven by Nonpetroleum Products; Oil Costs Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices edged 0.1% higher (-3.7% y/y) during July following a 0.6% June gain, revised from 0.2%. The rise compared to expectations for a 0.4% fall in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally [...]
Import prices edged 0.1% higher (-3.7% y/y) during July following a 0.6% June gain, revised from 0.2%. The rise compared to expectations for a 0.4% fall in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
A 3.6% decline in petroleum import prices (-23.1% y/y) held back the overall price rise. Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.5% (-1.3% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. The increase was the largest since April 2011. Higher prices for non-oil industrial supplies & materials costs drove the increase. They surged 2.1% (-3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Foods, feeds & beverage costs jumped 3.3% (1.4% y/y), the largest increase since March 2014. Motor vehicle & parts prices fell 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) following no change. Nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.1% (-0.4% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five. Capital goods prices also were off 0.1% (-1.9% y/y), and they have been falling since 2013. Capital goods prices excluding computers, peripherals & semiconductors also eased 0.1% (-1.6% y/y).
Export prices increased 0.2% (-3.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.8% rise. A 0.1% decline had been expected.
Nonagricultural commodity prices improved 0.3% (-3.0% y/y) following a 0.5% increase. Agricultural goods costs eased 0.4% (-2.6% y/y) following three months of strong increase. Foods, feeds & beverage prices declined 0.8% (-2.5% y/y) following a 2.6% gain. Industrial supplies & materials costs increased 0.8% (-7.5% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices improved 0.5% (-1.8% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Capital goods prices slipped 0.1% (-0.5% y/y) following two months of no change. Motor vehicle & parts prices remained unchanged (-0.5% y/y) for the third month in four.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | -3.7 | -10.2 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | -3.6 | 10.6 | 13.9 | -23.1 | -46.0 | -5.6 | -2.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -1.3 | -2.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -3.0 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Agricultural | -0.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | -2.6 | -13.3 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | -3.0 | -5.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
