Global| Oct 23 2013U.S. Import Price Inflation Remains Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices matched expectations and increased 0.2% last month (-1.0% y/y), the same as during August. A 0.8% increase (-0.4% y/y) in petroleum prices was accompanied by no change (-1.0% y/y) in nonpetroleum costs. September's [...]
Import prices matched expectations and increased 0.2% last month (-1.0% y/y), the same as during August. A 0.8% increase (-0.4% y/y) in petroleum prices was accompanied by no change (-1.0% y/y) in nonpetroleum costs.
September's weakness in nonpetroleum import prices was led by a 0.1% dip (0.0% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods prices. Imported auto prices were unchanged (-1.2% y/y) as were capital goods prices (-1.0 y/y). Prices for nonpetroleum industrial supplies increased 0.2% (-3.6 y/y) while foods, feeds & beverage prices rose 0.5% (1.8 y/y).
U.S. export prices increased 0.3% (-1.6% y/y) last month versus an expected 0.1% uptick. The rise was the first in seven months. Prices for agricultural products rose 0.7% (-6.3% y/y) and nonagricultural goods prices increased 0.3% (-0.9% y/y). Last month's total increase was led by 0.7% increases in both foods, feeds & beverages prices (-7.3% y/y) and industrial supplies & materials costs (-2.8% y/y). Capital goods prices ticked up 0.1% (0.9% y/y). Prices were unchanged m/m for autos (0.4% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods (-1.8% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Annus Horribillis or Annus Mirabillis? (With reference to Errol Flynn, Robert Roosa, Queen Elizabeth II, Winston Churchill, Felix Rohatyn and Mick Jagger) is the title of last week's speech by Dallas Fed President Richard W. Fisher and it can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 10.9 | 6.9 |
| Petroleum | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 36.5 | 28.4 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.3 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 0.4 | 8.1 | 4.9 |
| Agricultural | 0.7 | -4.2 | -0.3 | -6.3 | 2.4 | 22.3 | 7.9 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 4.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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